The first exit poll suggests that the Conservative Party won’t get the 326 seats needed to secure an overall majority in the 2017 General Election. There are some seats which are seen as ‘safe’ – where the result has been consistent over recent years with one party holding a strong share of the votes – but others are known as ‘swing’ seats, where, in simple terms, it’s anyone’s game. These are the seats that could make all the difference.
We’re defining a swing seat here as one that was won by a majority of less than 5% in the 2015 election. It’s also important to consider whether it’s a constituency that voted Leave or Remain as Labour are likely to do better where there was a stronger Remain vote last summer.
Conservative seats at risk
- Bedford – Conservative in 2015 (2.38% majority)/ Leave (51.9%)
- Bolton West – Conservative in 2015 (1.1% majority) / Leave (55.5%)
- Brighton, Kemptown – Conservative in 2015 (1.02% majority)/ Leave (43.4%)
- Bury North – Conservative in 2015 (0.58% majority) / Leave (53.7%)
- Cardiff North – Conservative in 2015 (3.18% majority) / Leave (39.1%)
- Corby – Conservative in 2015 (3% majority) /Leave (60.1%)
- Croydon Central – Conservative in 2015 (0.21%) / Leave (50.3%)
- Derby North – Conservative in 2015 (0.06%) / Leave (53.7%)
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – Conservative in 2015 (1.53%) / Leave (43.9%)
- Eastbourne – Conservative in 2015 (0.94%) / Leave (57.6%)
- Gower – Conservative in 2015 (0.04%) / Leave (50.2%)
- Kingston and Surbiton – Conservative in 2015 (3.49%) / Leave (41.6%)
- Lewes – Conservative in 2015 (1.56%) / Leave (47%)
- Lincoln – Conservative in 2015 (1.95%) / Leave (57.3%)
- Morley and Outwood – Conservative in 2015 (0.56%) / Leave (59.8%)
- Peterborough – Conservative in 2015 (2.65%) / Leave (61.3%)
- Plymouth, Moor View – Conservative in 2015 (1.5%) / Leave (66.4%)
- Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport – Conservative in 2015 (0.71%) / Leave (54.4%)
- Telford – Conservative in 2015 (1.8%) / Leave (67.1%)
- Thornbury and Yate – Conservative in (2.26%) / Leave (53.3%)
- Thurrock – Conservative in (0.69%) / Leave (70.3%)
- Twickenham – Conservative in 2015 (2.51%) / Leave (33.7%)
- Vale of Clwyd – Conservative in 2015 (0.42%) / Leave (55.9%)
- Warrington South – Conservative in 2015 (3.24%) / Leave (50.9%)
- Waveney – Conservative in 2015 (4.61%) / Leave (63.2%)
- Weaver Vale – Conservative in 2015 (1.18%) / Leave (50.2%)
Labour seats at risk
- Bridgend – Labour in 2015 (3.21%) / Leave (49.7%)
- Dewsbury – Labour in 2015 (1.82%) / Leave (57.3%)
- Enfield North – Labour in 2015 (1.59%) / Leave (49.2%)
- Harrow West – Labour in 2015 (3.17%) / Leave 45.1%
- Hove – Labour in 2015 (1.68%) / Leave 33.9%
- Lancaster and Fleetwood – Labour in 2015 (2.04%) / Leave 50.9%
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland – Labour in 2015 (3.19%) / Leave 65%
- North East Derbyshire – Labour in 2015 (2.64%) / Leave (62.2%)
- Tooting – Labour in 2015 (3.7%) / Leave 25.3%
Liberal Democrat seats at risk
- Carshalton and Wallington – Liberal Democrat in 2015 (2.16%) / Leave 56.3%
- Orkney and Shetland – Liberal Democrat in 2015 (2.3.6%) / Leave 40.3%
- Sheffield, Hallam – Liberal Democrat in 2015 (3.25%) / Leave 35.9%
- Southport – Liberal Democrat in 2015 (1.96%) / Leave 45.5%
SNP seats at risk
- Berwickshire, Roxborough and Selkirk – SNP in 2015 (0.44%) / Leave 43.2%
- East Dunbartonshire – SNP in 2015 (3.24%) / Leave 26.7%
The voter turnout for this election is currently looking much higher than previous years which could see us up all night waiting for the results to trickle in. Keep an eye on NME.com for updates as we have them.